The Situation

Consider an established medicine expanding into a new patient population with evidence that is substantially stronger than originally anticipated.

The opportunity to reach more patients may be significant. But expanding the eligible population can also create an expectation that price should decline, particularly in markets where price and population size are closely linked.

The Assumption

It is easy for that expectation to become the starting point for strategy: more patients means a lower price.

In many circumstances, that may be a reasonable assumption. But it can also cause teams to anchor on an expected outcome before fully considering what has changed.

Exceptional evidence, significant unmet need, strong clinical demand or other changes in the environment may alter the value of the opportunity and the negotiating dynamics around it.

The Possibility

The better question may be:

What does the new evidence make possible that wasn't possible before?

That requires looking beyond the conventional pricing assumption. Relevant precedents, changing standards of care, stakeholder demand, alternative positioning and differences among markets can all create options that may not be apparent when the original strategy is simply carried forward.

It also requires considering the opportunity across markets rather than assuming the same answer will apply everywhere.

What Changed

When the underlying assumptions change, the strategy should be reconsidered with them.

That can mean establishing a more ambitious value position, identifying markets where there is greater flexibility, finding different approaches in markets with more restrictive assessment frameworks, and building internal confidence to pursue outcomes that may initially appear difficult.

The result does not have to be the same in every market. The objective is to recognize the full range of possibilities before accepting an outcome as inevitable.

The Broader Lesson

Strong evidence does not automatically create value. Leadership teams first have to recognize when it changes the assumptions underlying the old strategy.

Sometimes the opportunity is not a new tactic. It is recognizing that the boundaries everyone has been working within may have changed.